DPS Theory

June 18, 2008

Drilling for US oil

Filed under: Irrational Bush Hatred, Politics — Peter @ 8:05 pm

Why is Bush so determined now to drill for oil in ANWAR and the continental shelf? He was complaining in his Sky News interview the other day of people “squawking” about the price of oil, so he thinks it’s a good time to start drilling for more oil in the US.

His estimate is that a US drilling program would supply 18 billion barrels of oil, total. Now, that’s a lot of oil, it would run my Ford Focus for…well, longer than I expect to get out of the car. And since oil is up over $120 a barrel, maybe that would help lower the price of oil…Except, we know of about 1.3 trillion barrels of oil around the world. I am not an economist, but I don’t think the amount of oil we’re exploiting by 1.5% would make a big dent in price. Maybe if we kept all that oil to ourselves, and just live off our own cheap oil? Well, the US uses 21 million barrels of oil each day, so our local reserves would last less than 3 years, if that’s all the oil we used. Not exactly a good long term strategy.

So, does Bush just mean to placate the squawkers, for political reasons? Pretend he’s doing something useful? Nah. He’s thinking it’s a great time to revisit the issue, because he wants to get that $2 trillion (and climbing) of oil in the hands of his friends in the oil industry. With oil prices high, he’s hoping to convince us that it would solve our energy problems if only we’d give that oil to someone to sell to us. It won’t save us but a few pennies, but whoever gets to sell it to us stands to make a killing.

See how that works?

UPDATE OF MONUMENTAL IMPORTANCE!!!!: Apparently, NYT editors read my blog:O Yeah, must be…NYT editors and no-one else.  How ’bout that.  It was published after my original post here, therefore it must be plagiarism.

June 17, 2008

Cui Bono?

Filed under: Irrational Bush Hatred, Obama '08, Politics — Peter @ 6:05 pm

I’m not shy about it. President Bush and the Republicans are not* fascists, not totalitarians, but they sure don’t care if America slips into authoritarianism of some kind or another. There are probably some forms they’d prefer over others–he’s ostensibly willing to lock the US down to keep Al Quaeda from establishing a Muslim authoritarian empire from taking over the US. Quite possibly some don’t realize that an American led dictatorship could be a bad thing…I mean, America, it’s by definition always good, right?

But, why are they so willing to tear away our freedoms? Cui Bono? Who benefits? Cuz really, it’s not making us safe from terrorism, and if it were, well, no-one’s making us safe from natural disasters, and they’re doing more damage recently than terrorists ever have.

So, who benefits? The party. The Republican party mostly. The Republican party strongly supports a well defined social pecking order. Those with the most money win, and get special privileges. Men and whites are higher in the pecking order than women and minorities, and the Republicans like it that way. Clergy like to maintain some control over their flock–no-one else is paying their bills, you know (and since they ain’t even selling anything…). So, if those on top of the pecking order, the wealthy elite, can keep the party of the wealthy and the elite in power, so much the better for them. And so much the worse for the rest of us. So all the police state tactics, intimidation, corruption, vote-rigging, are a means to the end of keeping the Repubs in power (they’ve even on occasion-Nixon, e.g.-mentioned as much), for the good of America, by which they mean the wealthiest people in America.

The same goes for Republican economic policies, actually. Take climate change. A realistic economic assessment of the problem wouldn’t pretend that the globe isn’t warming, or feign ignorance. You don’t get ahead economically on wishful thinking alone. You’d say yep, there’s a problem, now how can we best mitigate it, or better turn this knowledge to our advantage. However, those at the top in the US are so wealthy that they can reasonably hope to live above the consequences; and even better for their relative social status, those at the bottom might even be much worse off.

That said, a solid two-party system is better for both parties than a three party system, or a many party system with enough indie parties at least to force alliances on votes. Ergo, the Democrats are worth propping up, too, if you’re interested using politics to maintain your place in the pecking order. So Democrats aren’t to be trusted as a rule, either…but I find they general actually do handle themselves better, and are more reality based in their policies than Republicans are.

So, I’m voting Obama ‘08!

And will blog something about video game math soon, I promise!!!

*necessarily

I don’t care either way, Muslim or oligarchic, I don’t want to live in a dictatorship

The last thing I want…

Filed under: Irrational Bush Hatred, Obama '08, Politics — Peter @ 5:31 pm

Is a president of the US who would SLANDER AMERICA!. Watch this! Now what the hell? A Sky News interviewer brings up a couple of our most noble, glorious American projects, and Prez Bush has the gall to say that talking about those is slandering America? Now, last I checked, in order to be slander, the claim has to not only be false (which clearly it isn’t) and also has to do damage to the slandered, i. e. it has to be a bad thing. But this is America we’re talking about, we don’t do bad things! And I won’t let my Prezzie say we’ve done anything wrong without giving him hell about it.

I <3 America! I <3 rendition and torture! I <3 imprisonment without due process! I <3 dissappearing people! These things aren’t things we should be ashamed of! We should be proud of them. Live at all costs, just don’t let them kill me! Freedom isn’t worth it. Or something like that, my memory isn’t always so good.

And that Republican scum would say bad things about America is why I’m voting Obama ‘08.

I will get back to video game math in the near future, I promise x<3

June 15, 2008

War is not (just) a spectator spor

Filed under: Iraq, Politics — Peter @ 3:49 pm

John McCain, US Republican presidential candidate, wants to bring our soldiers home from Iraq after they’ve achieved Victory! It would be a real shame if we pulled our troops home before they’ve Won.

But here’s the thing…wars aren’t fought for “victory.” A war is one nation exerting its national policy by force upon another nation. Maybe the war is fought over land, access to resources. Or because lawlessness in one country is running over the border into another country. I seem to recall we went in to Iraq to disarm them, take away their WMDs and free the citizenry from the tyranny of Saddam Hussein. Well, Hussein is dead, and Iraq hasn’t had WMDs since we disarmed them after Gulf War I. But that’s not good enough. McCain wants us to be Victorious!, in the sense that we can keep our soldiers in Iraq without drawing any fire from Iraqis. Total victory. We’re there just to show them who’s boss.

Now, why would we even care if we can keep soldiers in Iraq unless we have another reason to be over there. Like, disarming them. Oh, we’ve done that. Keeping Al Quaeda out of Iraq. I am the only person reading this, I’m sure, so I’m not gonna put any effort into debunking that. Protecting American business interests, Bechtel, Halliburton, and so on, in Iraq. Nah…oh, wait, that sounds pretty good to me, actually.

But not for Victory. It just doesn’t mean anything. It’s not worth making up fights for.

June 12, 2008

36 on the ACT grammar

Filed under: Grammarian — Peter @ 8:42 pm

Yeah, that was like 16 years ago for me.

Actual question on Are You Smarter Than A Fifth Grader:

“How many adjectives are in, ‘Sierra runs down the hill.’”

Correct answer, 1, “the.”

Their answer, 0.

Yes, articles are adjectives.

So yes, I’m smarter than a 5th grader. Thank you.

Now stop wondering why I’m watching such crap, I’m not watching, it’s just on.

Where Kim Deal breaks my heart:’(

Filed under: Music — Peter @ 8:20 pm

So rock goddess Kim Deal and her twin sister Kelly guest-deejayed a 90min set on woxy.com a few weeks ago. When I got around to listening to it, the woxy dj asks them if they’re Breeders tour will be coming near Cincy or Dayton. NOOOO! Kim complains that they can’t play Dayton since people in Dayton don’t go out. I’m one of those who don’t go out. But I’m very very shy, so of course I don’t get out enough. What’s the rest of the city’s excuse?

Anyway, I didn’t realize it, but it’s true! William Gibson showed up at a local bookstore, and there were probably fewer than 20 people to hear him speak!

So, that’s life in Dayton.

June 11, 2008

M. Night Shyamalan

Filed under: Minutiae — Peter @ 6:29 pm

He keeps making movies, and I guess people keep watching them.  Why?

Some movie critic refers to him as a one-hit wonder.  Which was the hit, I wonder?  I thought Sixth Sense was terribly dreary and unintentionally funny–seriously, if my kid told me that a ghost was talking to me, I’d LOL!, not get freaked out and tell my kid he’s scaring me.  Well, it woulda been funnier to me if it weren’t all so dreary.

I guess Unbreakable was kinda cute, though.

Have some compassion…

Filed under: Minutiae — Peter @ 5:50 pm

Suppose you were convicted of hedge-fund fraud to the tune of about $450M, and instead of showing up to serve your prison sentence, you decide to fake your own suicide.  Now, while your hiding, say, on beautiful Caribbean beach, listening to the news, you hear that the police have ruled out actual suicide and are looking for you.  I’d feel so bad!  What, no candlelight vigil?  No-one mourning or sorry about your loss?  Gosh, to not be trusted to actually kill yourself over regret for your fraud and conviction.  And he probably felt so clever when he ditched his SUV with “Suicide is Easy” scrawled on the hood.

June 9, 2008

Thundercats are…What?

Filed under: Minutiae — Peter @ 5:40 pm

I got around to watching Juno the other day, and while it was charming enough, Juno uttered a line that confused me.

“Thundercats are go!”

Now, I always thought that went “Thunderbirds are go!”  But I haven’t seen those Thunderbirds marionette shows in forever, and I don’t remember Thundercats well enough to be sure that they don’t say something very similar.  But a quick google search only returns references to Juno for the Thundercats version, and there was indeed a tv series titled “Thunderbirds are go!”  So there you go.

May 31, 2008

Book Review: Kluge by Gary Marcus

Filed under: Biology, Books, Science — Peter @ 7:38 pm

Natural selection can only* work in small steps, and without foresight. So evolutionary progress is constrained to small improvements on what we’ve already got in place. Now, those small steps can accumulate to some pretty wonderful and complicated organs and organisms, such as the human brain, but the evolved design is strongly constrained by its evolutionary history. We wouldn’t expect those organs to be as nifty as they might have been if they’d been designed from scratch for a specific purpose. In Kluge, Gary Marcus details the mental errors we make all the time, and suggests that we are prone to making them because of the peculiar history of the evolution of our brains.

Pet peeve: in the first chapter, Marcus describes natural selection as a “satisficing” process, that doesn’t achieve optimal results, but good enough results. That always rubs me the wrong way–natural selection is a local optimizing process, with the caveat that what it’s optimizing is reproductive fitness, not, well, whatever we think a particular interesting organ is supposed to be doing. For example, we look at a liver, think, “Hey, it’s for filtering out poisons!” But no, a liver is meant to increase reproductive fitness, by a) filtering out toxins while b) not wasting too many resources on keeping blood clean as opposed to other vital functions. And as a local process, it suffers from the same failing of any local optimizing process, such as Newton’s Method: it tends to get stuck at the top of whatever local maximum it reaches first.

Anyway, we don’t expect evolution to achieve the best of all possible solution to a problem, but we can often expect that it’s doing as well as it can. The distinction is important, because any sloppiness or sub-optimality we see in an organism can tell us something about how it got to it’s present form, or about how costly a process would be to improve. And Marcus agrees with me about that, so no complaint there, I just don’t like his word choice.

Throughout the book, Marcus does a fine job cataloging our mental mistakes–reasoning error; faulty, fuzzy memories; our clumsy and illogical languages; our miscalibrated pleasure system that we’re eager to cheat. He refers to plenty of cute psychology experiments that explore the holes in our minds that we usually manage to overlook.

For each of our faults, he presents his imaginings of how our brain would work if it were built by a good engineer. To demonstrate how sub-optimal our brains actually are, he tries to tell us how much better they could be. These are often not very convincing–he proposes that we could have “postal code” memories that keep perfect, computer like track of where every datum is in our memories. But…how would we keep track of which code goes with each datum? Postal codes on postal codes? Sure, computers do it, but not really. All a computer does is run a set of arithmetical instructions that someone programmed into it. Interpretation of a computer’s output has always been done by clumsy human brains. When AI researchers try to build software that has contextual/interpretive abilities, that software always makes plenty of mistakes. And it doesn’t come with the ability to introspect it’s own software guts. Anyway, I will concede that our brains could have been built with a relatively small hard-memory module, for example; but expecting all of our memory to be perfect by working on a “postal code” scheme seems pretty far fetched.

I’ll counter-argue with Gary Marcus that our subconscious brain could be more optimal in some of those ways than he realizes, and that some of the mistakes and limitations of our conscious minds will be shared by the most sophisticated AI running on the best computers. I’ll of course concede, again, that we could have, in principle, been built with an integrated 16-bit calculator to help us with arithmetic, and that evolutionary history kept that from happening.

Similarly with language–he discusses logical languages that we could have evolved to understand. These languages would use words with phonic structures (for example) that give clues to their meanings, i.e. similar sounding words could mean similar things. A logical language would also result in a clear, distinct meaning for each statement it’s allowed to make. But–imagine a language that has no ambiguities. How would you (or evolution) know it has no ambiguities? If you only have a few simple concepts to express, such as a language that describes just arithmetic, it can’t be done. Gödel’s theorem. Simple arithmetic contains statements that can’t be proven true. I don’t know what they are. I’m not sure you can know that a particular statement can’t be proven. Now, in English and other human languages, there are plenty of obvious ambiguities, and we could probably do better if we put our minds to it. But how much effort would it take, and would it make evolutionary sense to invest it? Maybe evolution has built our language systems exactly as well as it needed to.

Another thing about language to illustrate the point–we are good at inferring meaning from partial information. At least, better than a computer is when it misses a little bit of information, which can result in a fatal program error. It may well be that the same system that allows us to infer meaning from partial information means we can’t tell so well when we’re saying exactly what we mean to say.

My other main gripe about the book is that Marcus never really discusses what these mental limitations tell us about our evolutionary history. It says right inside the front flap: “How the accidents of evolution created our quirky, imperfect minds.” But if we’re lucky, he’ll tell us that he can easily imagine that there’s a just-so story explaining the mental fault. Without even telling us his story! Great! I’d much prefer examples from other creatures minds, and what they tell us about how our minds work, or don’t work, as the case may be. Not a just-so story, and definitely not a hint that just-so stories are easy to imagine.

The penultimate chapter of the book is almost the most interesting. He discusses mental disorders, and suggests that the particular mental disorders that people suffer can tell us about how our brains are assembled. Great stuff, except that after he makes a persuasive and satisfying argument that it’s possible, he fails to do it. He offers some interesting guesses about what some common disorders might tell us about our brains, though.

Overall, I thought the book was somewhat interesting, and pretty fun and quick to read, but I already knew most of this information from other places that discussed them in more detail, with better context. And since it failed to live up to it’s purported unique, evolutionary history perspective, I was mostly disappointed:/

* “only” in practice; in principle evolution can take very large steps, it’s just that large steps are vastly more likely to break things more than they improve things, while I’ve heard that infinitesimally small steps are about as likely to improve things as they are to break things, so that half of those will be worth keeping, if they can bubble up above the noise

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